Every year around March or April I am looking forward the OLAP Report site to see the OLAP market share numbers. Computing these numbers is not a simple task as Nigel Pendse explains on http://www.olapreport.com/market.htm, and this kind of analysis really is not available anywhere else. This year again, I was waiting for the 2007 results to see by how much Microsoft increased its market share. March and April passed, then May passed, we are well into June, and the results didn’t show up. So I contacted Nigel, and here is what he told me (publishing with permission):
Unfortunately, I don't think it's possible to calculate accurate OLAP market shares any more. Applix, Business Objects, Cognos and Hyperion were all acquired in the last year, and therefore no longer publish figures, so it's no longer possible to work out their OLAP revenues. Furthermore, in the year of acquisition, their figures are particularly distorted (sales people work very hard to close deals just before the acquisition, because they don't expect to keep the commission afterwards, so sales are high the quarter before the deals close, and weak the following quarter).
Of, course, the disruption doesn't help sales in those companies, so I don't doubt that Microsoft increased its lead, its just that I don't have any good way any longer of calculating it. Generally, the new owners of those companies are not prepared to disclose product revenues.
So after the wave of last year consolidations, it is no longer possible to have accurate estimates. But even without precise numbers, how the future looks like ? (emphasis is mine)
I may try again in the future, but at the moment, I can't think of a reliable way to calculate OLAP market shares. I think it's also less interesting than in the past, with fewer significant vendors remaining.
Microsoft is clearly going to stay #1.
Oracle+Hyperion will probably stay at #2, but its share is unlikely to rise.
IBM (Cognos+Applix) will stay at number 3; its share may rise a bit, particularly if IBM gives TM1 the promotion that Applix could not afford to do, but I think IBM will stay in #3.
SAP+BOBJ will stay in the next position.
MicroStrategy may gain share, but is unlikely to overtake SAP+BOBJ.
No other vendor comes close, so the top five aren't likely to change position any time soon.
Anyway, the picture below shows how the market share trends looked like until 2006 (source: OLAP Report)
Calculating the market shares for consolidated companies based on 2006 positions
| ||2006 Market share |
|Microsoft ||31.6% |
|Oracle+Hyperion ||21.7% |
|Cognos+Applix=IBM ||16.5% |
|SAP+Business Objects ||13.1% |
|Microstrategy ||7.3% |
Update: Turns out the numbers in this table are not accurate, because I forgot to account that Business Objects had acquired Cartesis and that SAP had acquired OutlookSoft. Anyway, Nigel has updated his OLAP market share page with deeper analysis of 2007 consolidation effect on market shares, and he has more accurate numbers.