Our Microsoft RD lead Kevin Schuler has asked us to post predictions for 2010 that will appear in a special edition of TheRegion. (Check out www.theregion.com for any interesting blog if you haven't already). Here's mine:
Against all perceived wisdom, I suspect that the interest in developing general applications for the iPhone store will peak this year, unless Apple comes out with a more innovative platform. At present, Apple have completely won the mindshare in relation to phone applications, not just the hardware game. All major websites I deal with are starting to create iPhone friendly versions. Early on, we heard amazing stories of how developers had made a fortune through the appstore. I see a few problems becoming more apparent this year:
1. The price of applications. Even super-sophisticated applications are considered over-priced now at $8. While there's some truth that it's "just a numbers game", it's getting much harder to justify the effort required to build the next generation of apps as the price drops lower and lower.
2. Political control of the appstore. Having a developer story that says that you can spend six months building an app, make it beautiful and functional and then at a whim Apple could decide to not let you sell it, and you have no other way to sell it, isn't a good story. That's particularly the case when the reasons might seem unreasonable to you eg: not competing with built-in functionality or not providing a service that their "partners" already provide.
3. Most serious applications being built now seem to be front-ends for standard business sites. There's nothing wrong with that but it's the interest in building general purpose applications that I'm suggesting will peak.
4. You can't find things in the appstore any more. The beauty of the appstore has become it's ugly side too. How do you efficiently find apps that are worthwhile amongst the load of rubbish that's in there. And the volume is increasing daily.
What do you think will happen in the software industry this year?